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From a hotel lobby in NYC — First Dispatch and WarNotes combined — Amanda is off today and I am on the road.

We are watching what both parties are doing rather than saying — it shows they are BOTH worried the polls are wrong.

Plus the Democrats problem children have something in common — what could that be?!

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• Prediction👀: “Not to my knowledge” will live along with “depends on what the meaning of ‘is’ is.”

• Tonight we reverse-engineer the case against Omar from our exclusive reporting on the collection of her and her family’s DNA and what she told MS NOW’s Chris Hayes

  • Result📃: What does the government have to prove to either denaturalize, deport or put in jail?

• PS❗: We will remind you, our sources continue to tell us the press is underestimating both the evidence they have and the possible depth and breadth of the charges.

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• Warning⚠️: Alex Wagner of Crooked Media just did a podcast entitled, “Are the Polls Too Good to Be True”

• Wait🛑: I heard a blue tsunami was coming and Democrats might win the Mississippi Senate seat.

  • Democrats are starting to worry (a lot) that they’ve overhyped expectations.

• Reality👀: Democrats will most likely win the House by a safe but not necessarily comfortable margin — the Senate is, as Scott will show us tonight, a coin flip.

  • Go deeper🪏: Each Senate race is extremely unique.

    • Sound smart🧠: We will go race by race to show why the “wave” of support for Democrats and freezing level approval for Trump

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Most powerful man in the world (?): The new reporting of Elon Musk’s unilateral throttling of Starlink cements the richest man in the world as one of the most powerful.

• Never before has a man of industry or investment had or exercised such political power.

  • Wow!

    Leave a comment

Everybody Else Knows‼️

🚶Donald Trump is now all alone in selling the Golden Age of America’s economy — even JD Vance got off the gravy train.

• Be fair⚖️: For many with big stock portfolios, things have NEVER been better — for everybody else, things keep getting harder.

• John LeFevre calls it the “Forever K”

• As we’ve told you for a year — it feels unfair — finally, Republicans have realized people don’t like being gaslit.

  • Things were OK — maybe even getting better till tariffs and then the Iran war.

    • Look back🔙: 5 years ago we were told Putin’s price hike meant complaining about high prices was unpatriotic…things change

• Get serious‼️: Whether Republicans keep the Senate is beside the point — they must get serious about tectonic changes to the tax code.

  • Think about it💭: The vast majority of Americans are hurting and feel things are rigged against them — you can’t win elections by telling them they are wrong.

• Duh🤦: The first Republican to start talking about fair changes (not fair share) will have a head start

  • Eliminate carried interest deduction

  • Eliminate oil depletion allowance

  • Eliminate private jet and yacht deductions

  • Eliminate Roth IRA investments in private companies

  • Eliminate or restrict pass-through entities

  • Eliminate buy, borrow and die exemptions

• If you haven’t heard of any of these…that’s the point

Watch tonight📺: Steve Cortes AND Stephen Moore tonight on when Republicans will give up their sacred cows.

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Hold My Beer 🍺

☑️Today, Donald Trump proved he understands politics and the electorate better than the media that hates him.

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• Must read —

• In the last 72 hours —

  • Secretary of War Pete Hegseth made a secret trip to Israel

  • The U.S. began a massive evacuation of embassy personnel and their families from the Middle East that would be in the line of fire.

  • While Hegseth was there, Israelis reportedly flew dozens of planes thousands of miles to Iran’s border in a test of the Iranian regime’s air defenses and resolve

    • @barakRavid: “Some U.S. sources said they had the impression that Israel was hoping the Iranians would fire at the aircraft, providing a justification for launching strikes against Iran”

• Tonight📺: Vice Adm. Robert Harward

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Omar Investigation‼️: Ilhan Omar is officially out of witness protection — today, she posted on social media asking her supporters for donations and will appear on MS NOW tonight at 8 p.m.

• Waiting by phone📱: She has yet to agree to join us about our reporting

• Watch 📱: Give me money $

• What I’m thinking💭: Remember when Omar said it was “all about the Benjamins”

  • Bonus points if you get the reference.

• Our reporting shows that investigators are gathering evidence to prove Omar and her family are involved in a conspiracy that goes back decades

  • We told you this would be stunning

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  • @willchamberlain: “The federal search warrant against Ilhan Omar names her as “Ilhan Nur Said Elmi, a/k/a Ilhan Abdullahi Omar,” indicating that DOJ believes she is present in the United States under a false identity!”

• Tonight📺: Tom Dupree, constitutional law attorney and former deputy assistant attorney general

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The Biggest Race in America‼️

• Control of the Senate runs through Michigan, and both sides know it

  Leave a comment

• Vance: “In Michigan, we have one of the most important, maybe the single most important race of the 2026 midterms.”

• Mamdani: “Our movement here in New York City is a movement that is part of something national, which is a fight for working people. When you think about Dr. Elsa’s campaign...his victory and the victory of Democrats across this country is of critical importance to our city”

• AOC: “This race is so close. It is so tight right now that every single vote matters...there are very few opportunities that we have in life where we feel like an action we take can actually change the country.”

• Trump: “Mohammed Al-Sayed is bad news. He’s a Muslim radical. We cannot take a chance on having this guy be in the US Senate. He’s not for us and he hates our country.”

Look back🔙: Everyone thought the national race would be Ken Paxton and James Talarico — it’s not

What changed‼️: Our question to El-Sayed two weeks ago changed the national conversation — is Israel or Iran a bigger threat?

• What I would ask — “who America should ally with and count on in the Middle East”

• When he deflects — he wants to be on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee — interesting for a guy who says all that matters is health care in Dearborn.

Watch tonight📺: By picking El-Sayed, did Democrats allow it to be a referendum on him, which they will lose, rather than on Trump, which they would win?

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Desperate times = Desperate measures‼️

Few things reek of desperation like the Vivek Ramaswamy ad featuring the estranged mother of his opponent

• Batya Ungar-Sargon (@bungarsargon) on X

📺Batya and Mark McKinnon join us tonight on why it might work

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Where is Rep Ilhan Omar? She used to be one of the Democrats loudest voices and most effective fighter — and now 2 weeks before the midterms she is missing in action. What that says about the fraud case against her — watch:

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Better option❗: Trump’s apparent willingness to cut or even consider cutting a deal on Ukraine without Zelenskyy has Washington and the most of the media losing its mind

• Effectively, Trump would trade Putin’s “help” with Iran for Ukraine.

  • It’s a terrible, awful deal.

• BUT🤷: What is the alternative — another year of war? Another 2 years of war?

  • The Biden administration had 3 years to find another solution – they couldn’t.

  • Should we fund Ukraine forever?

    Leave a comment

• Watch tonight📺: Rep. Adam Smith on what Democrats must offer if they are going to keep criticizing Trump on Ukraine.

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Shot: An ad featuring Ohio gubernatorial candidate Amy Acton’s estranged mom calling her daughter a fraud is stunning.

Chaser: News from Acton’s brother that her biological mother stayed married to the stepfather that allegedly raped Acton at 12 is an ice-cold bucket of water.

• 📰Best write-up — “Attack Ad Featuring Candidate’s Mother Turn Ohio Governor’s Race Even Uglier,” headlines The New York Times

• Gloves off 🥊: Get ready for cruelty like we have never seen in the last 2 weeks.

• Fair question❓: Who is really up for grabs in the last 2 weeks?

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No More Elections🗳️

👍Some good news from the campaign trail — more people are voting than ever before

• 📈Record numbers in Texas

• And in Georgia

• Basically all of America

• Cue the snark🤷: What about all the Democrats who warned us in 2024 that if Trump won, it would be “the last election”?

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🤦And that’s the point — it’s a dumb campaign strategy — vote for us because the other guys will end democracy — be afraid.

• Right now‼️: This is important because it’s Trump’s strategy

  • Last night🗣️: Trump — “If you want to see what is at stake in this election, just look at what’s happening in France, a once great nation that is being conquered, looted, and burned to the ground by migrants, jihadists, and communists who hate Christianity...When you see burning steeples and raging fires in France, just remember that is what the radical Democrats want to do to America. They expect to do it.”

Trump and Republicans’ playbook for 2026 looks very much like Democrats’ for 2024

• It didn’t work then — it’s not working now

Look back🔙: Reagan told us that “if fascism ever comes to America, it will come in the name of liberalism.” he was right.

• Worldview 🌎: The socialists want to tear America apart and destroy the fundamentals that make America exceptional

  • This is fundamentally different from the mainstream right’s worst tendencies.

  • We see that on display in France

Morning in America: Reagan also understood the power of a dream and the future —

• MAGA is similar; it’s inherently hopeful — it’s the promise of a better tomorrow.

Elections are about the future — whoever promises Americans a better future wins, and it appears that lesson is lost on both sides.

• Again🤦: Chief Democrat fearmonger Elissa Slotkin now says Trump will create “manufactured outrage” to distract from the election. Remember in 2022 when armed gangs of militias would take over polling places.

  • Please stop.

Tonight📺: Steve Cortes, Mark McKinnon and Charlie Dent

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Omar Investigation‼️

👀Rep. Ilhan Omar has disappeared — and it might just show that Trump’s DOJ has a little more on her than people claiming this is just a political witch hunt want to admit.

• ICYMI: Our exclusive reporting on the Omar investigation.

‼️Fraud is front and center for Americans right now — 89% of Americans think corruption in the government is widespread.

• For Democrats, it’s about the Trump family profiting off the government.

  • We’ll have more on this tomorrow.

• For Republicans, it means healthcare fraud and what Somalis took from our government

  • Nobody better exemplifies what Republicans mean by fraud than Rep. Ilhan Omar

• She’s Somali, accused of marrying her brother and is subject to more investigations — and now, she has disappeared.

• There’s a political and legal reason why we haven’t seen or heard from her recently.

• Border czar Tom Homan hinted this investigation is bigger than we think

Trump announced today his Fraud Whistleblower Incentive Program — that will give away cash for tips that help catch fraudsters.

• Today, federal agents searched several New York businesses over suspected Medicaid fraud.

Tonight📺: Alan Dershowitz on how Republicans convince everyone this investigation into Rep. Omar isn’t just a political witch hunt.

Plus, legally, is this a good idea for Omar to be so quiet?

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Out of Touch💸

😡We told you yesterday how the richest man in the world, Elon Musk, understands the growing anger in America against the rich. And he is actually going to do something about it.

• Flipside🤦: United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby, who makes about $32 million a year, is saying we need a wealth tax

  • Mind you, the United CEO has not built anything in his life.

  • Let’s be real🤷: I don’t want my country run like United Airlines

    • CEOs need to stop telling us how to live our lives — get out of our lives and go be a CEO

• Musk is being smart putting his money where his mouth is — I don’t see CEOs writing checks to the treasury

  • If Kirby believes the rich should give more, why doesn’t he voluntarily give more to the government himself, rather than advocating for a tax on others

• This all just shows how tone deaf CEOs and celebrities are

  • Look at Kylie Jenner, who wore a $50 million bra in the Victoria’s Secret fashion show.

  • This is just one more example of why people in America are angry.

• Look back🔙: This is starting to feel like the U.K. in the early 2000s where you had the aristocratic class and the working class

  • The aristocratic class had all of the tabloid models, influencers and celebrities

  • And then everybody else was just everybody else

• ‼️America has never really had a huge, disparate wealth gap — and there’s something scary about that.

  • American exceptionalism isn’t exactly alive and well anymore — and the fundamental fairness that makes America so great is now broken.

  • And let me tell you — the CEO of United Airlines is not the person to solve it.

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Welcome to First Dispatch — we have found real hope for returning to right vs wrong in America — you dont want to miss this.

We have opened this FirstDispatch up to all subscribers because its an important message.

How Erick Erickson and Jamie Metzel have provided us real hope and NorthStar.

Plus, Trump’s 2026 playbook is a lot like democrats in 2024 — you win elections by giving people hope!

If First Dispatch gave you something to think about — please consider upgrading your friends will be jealous!

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Both sides are weaponizing the DOJ and profiting from their time in office. This is what’s wrong with America — will anyone in this country be a leader?

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• Republicans think they are looking better than they did a few weeks ago

• DDHQ has Democrats with a 56% chance of winning back the Senate

  • Disconnect🤔: The excitement by Democrats is way stronger than 56%

  • Good read📰: Politico headlines, “‘A warning sign for polling’: Why one GOP pollster thinks a blue wave may fall short”

• The people who seem to be the most honest about the polls are our partners at DDHQ, who say the Senate is a coin toss

  • Democrats are confident

  • Republicans are confident

• Tonight📺: Data guru and director of data science at DDHQ Scott Tranter, Kurt Bardella and Chris Cillizza join me.

  War Notes is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

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Must read📰: Our buddy Erick Erickson is out with a must-read Monday morning note about why the Palestinian flag is now the symbol of “resistance” worldwide

• Erickson explains it all: “The Flag That Flies Over Every Cause and Jimmy Carter’s Second Term”

• Often after reading Erick’s pieces, I think, “Why didn’t I think of that?” — if you like War Notes, you will love Show Notes

  • Erick is offering a 20% off subscription to Show Notes for all War Notes readers.

• My thoughts💭: France is the DSA’s dream — literally free everything, so NO, this is NOT about cost of living.

  • France is the icon of Islamic migration tolerance and recognition of a Palestinian state — yet rioters waved the flag.

  • Complicit‼️: The media first covered the “protests” as students angry about lunch. Now it’s “cost of living.”

    • We ignore the truth at our great peril.

  • ⚠️The French riots are a natural confluence of political Islam and leftist ideology…we should not be surprised.

    • Follow📱: Former Clinton NSC staffer Jamie Metzl explains it well

      • Jamie Metzl (@JamieMetzl) on X

    • Zoom out🚨: The Red Green alliance goes back to Iran and the ‘70s — be afraid

      • Read Eli Lake’s great piece — “The Ties That Bind Islamists and Progressives”

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Evil is Real🚨

• Now Putin is floating a summit with Xi of China to negotiate the end of the war in Ukraine.

  • It’s personal‼️: Trump has never liked Zelenskyy — he loves summits and the romance of an international deal.

    • Look back🔙: Kim Jong Un embarrassed Trump in Singapore — Putin is a smarter and shrewder Kim.

• Putin is evil🚨: Bill O’Reilly has been clear on this issue. Here’s Bill over the years on Putin:

  • 2008: “Most Americans understand that Putin is a villain, a former secret police killer”

  • 2014: “Taking a page out of the Hitler playbook Russian President Vladimir Putin has invaded Ukraine”

  • 2017: Bill: “He’s a killer tho, Putin’s a killer though.”

    • Trump: “A lot of killers...you think our country is so innocent?”

    • Bill: “I don’t know of any government leaders that are killers in America”

  • 2025: Leland: “20 pages in ‘Confronting Evil’ to Vladimir Putin. — By far the biggest chapter. Why?”

    • Bill: “He’s a danger to us, enjoys inflicting suffering on people. He’s a mass murderer…this is a guy that’s totally out of control. No constraints on him at all

❓What’s the justification for continuing to think Putin will give America a good deal and stick with it?

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• Plus: Why take your (Trump’s) boot off his neck and get nothing?

Watch tonight📺: We confront O’Reilly

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• 📱Today, Musk announced he is giving one share of SpaceX to every child in America through a Trump Account.

  • This would mean around 72 million children in America would each get a share currently worth around $146

• Is one share a big deal? Maybe not now, but it may be in 16 years.

  • Put it in perspective💰: If every kid was given a share of Tesla when it IPO’d 16 years ago, and the same thing happens to SpaceX as it did to Tesla, every share of SpaceX will be worth, in theory, over $40,000 in 16 years.

• It’s pretty amazing what he’s doing, but never mind the tax loopholes that will show the benefits to the rich.

  • Musk would be giving out over $10 billion in stock to children in America — which means he would get a MASSIVE write-off

    • Basic terms💲: He would get to take billions of dollars in deductions without actually spending a dollar.

      • This pays for all his political advertising plus living expenses for the rest of his life.

      • Again, the tax code benefits the rich — if you give stock to your kids, it’s AFTER tax money.

    • Be real 🤷: It’s pretty smart on his part too.

• Warning⚠️: But we’ve been telling you this for four years: radical Islam and socialism are converging, and it doesn’t end well.

  • They have something to sell that people are angry about

  • And say it can’t happen in the U.S. — look:

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Weaponization Games‼️

2️⃣Two things happened over the weekend when it came to weaponization:

1. President Obama came to the rescue of Rep. Ilhan Omar and said Trump is weaponizing the DOJ against her.

• Perhaps he saw our exclusive reporting showing the Omar investigation is growing. :

2. Potential 2028 vice presidential candidate Elissa Slotkin said we need to make young people afraid of going to work for the administration because they will be investigated simply for working for the Trump administration.

• This is the definition of weaponization

• Democrats can cry weaponization over Omar, but then you have Slotkin weaponizing staffers — can’t have it both ways.

• Good read📰: “The Race Is On for Trump Staffers to hire Lawyers in Case Democrats Win Midterms,” headlines The Wall Street Journal

Be real⚖️: Both sides are weaponizing the DOJ and profiting from their time in office.

• This is what’s wrong with America

• Yes, no one is above the law, but no one should be below the law either

  • The law should not be contorted to investigate whoever you want.

Tonight📺: Former Bernie Sanders campaign strategist Corbin Trent

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Are we confronting evil or appeasing evil???

Just two weeks until the Midterms and the President campaigns in a state that hasn’t elected a Democratic Senator since 1932 ... could Trump’s nationwide blitz keep once safe seats in his pocket?

Plus, can Democrats cry weaponization over Omar and then you have Slotkin …

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Welcome to Things I Tell My Friends —

Rachel and I went for a walk around the neighborhood and discovered a new desert — sweet cake as a cone for soft serve ice cream. Evidently this originally comes from Hungary? Any intel would be appreciated!

The stand has the worst advertising for the best product I have ever seen. How have I never had this before???

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President Trump told Ukraine’s Zelenskky back in 2025 that he didn’t hold any cards — events this week may have shown how true that is

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• Exclusive‼️: The investigative technique requires law enforcement to secretly recover or obtain trash from an investigative ta…

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Plus — is there now a breaking point going on in Ukraine? If America stops supporting Ukraine, how long do they have?

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Truth bomb💣: Larry Fink’s Wall Street Journal op-ed today nails why working-class Americans are resentful and suspicious after globalization and how the AI/infrastructure and big tech buildout can prevent the same fate again.

• 📰Fink headlines, “America Needs More Capital,” writing

  • “This boom can produce something larger than a handful of extraordinarily …

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